Cryptocurrency Look Ahead – Prices, Charts and Analysis

Good afternoon welcome my name is Nick Corley this is the weekly daily FX cryptocurrency webinar the normal risers here

Views here today mine and mine alone and under the views of all solicitations of business from either of my employers daily FX or the IG group hopefully you can all see and hear me okay if someone can let me know that would be great there will be a copy of this recording posted on the daily FX website and probably about an hour hour and a half excellent Trevor thank you kindly we’re an hour and a half’s time so if you have to jump out and there will be a copy there for you if you have any questions please file them through the beste wants them right so let’s move on if you were with me last week we were I was fairly bearish about how this whole market I mean it was very difficult last week to try and find anything to to get positive about we did have a sell-off it probably slumped or peaked whichever one you want to call it over the weekend you do always have to be slightly careful at weekend volatility as you know it’s a 24/7 market pretty much this so yeah anyhow so we we sort of kind of feels strongly over the weekend and then kind of we picked up and we’re really back to levels where we were pretty much this time last week you know give or change a couple of percents not so bearish this week I’m still finding it difficult though just looking at the charts and looking at the setups and to find anything really positive to say about the market so we’re kind of in a consolidation zone at the moment and sort of fairly neutral across the board saying that I think in some ways that the volatility of this market has kind of been taken out a touch which i think is good news I think it shows a sign of a market starting to mature mature but it may not be as as good for if you’re day traders I don’t know how many of your day traders hear of you buying a hold investors but I think what you really need I think this market needs is a bit of maturity it needs to calm down you really you need to kind of lose these fifteen twenty percent day spikes and drops as you know if you’re on the right side of it all great but if you’re on the wrong side of it and you’re not disciplined with your stops you’re going to get taken out so as I said I think this market is starting to entomb volatility has dropped I think turnover was dropped us chatting to one of the traders around here on there and you know the turnover has slowed down especially since January in the mini market so I sort of flying all over the place so yeah it’s it started to calm down starting to show a little bit of maturity and I think regulation eventually will make that better which I think then brings in the next the next thing is in our institutional money people are saying that you know if we get this market regulated that institutional money will flood in and the market will go soaring again you know that could well be the case first of all most with let’s get the regulation in and secondly a lot of these a lot of big institutional investors they’re not just going to sort of dive in onto a product they will probably take their time to have a look around find out what’s going on find out trading patterns underlying valuations if there are any so I don’t see people financial institutions in diving into this market which of this some people’s school of thought that this may happen anyhow so as I said we’re kind of neutral on the market at the moment but well we will go through the charts in a few minutes time and we’ll try and pick out a few areas see what we can do okay let’s have a quick look at we’ll go over to our favorite cryptocurrency coin market liqui crypto as you can see we got a market cap here with 354 billion short 3:55 but in fact one thing that’s quite interesting on this chart though is I just take it down to seven days and we have the market cap you see here turn-ins is 75 but we made a little little double bottom now at 275 that was after the slump on Sunday as I said it’s slanted and then you’ve it’s a kind of mirror pattern ISM if we look at it you know it’s market cap there 354 market cap today 354 so it’s a kind of yeah as I said it’s a kind of mirror pattern and it’s when it’s work around this 275 billion market cap double double low there so that’s one to maybe put on your giotto your trading jata if markets to sell off overall just just keep that and just keep that one in mind there as it may only be a short-term double bottom it may hold who knows but I said worth worth putting on your trading blotter there if we go and have a look at some of the coins before we look at some charts as you can see today nice nice and green all over the place slightly bullish but let’s go to our friend trading volume is always worth looking at this every day to be honest with you to find out what’s been driving the market over the last 24 hours it’s probably some Bitcoin still there still a major player there 6.3 6.4 billion turnover is on the low side so nothing to get excited there about do Nate tether tether and tether so if you put that all together so that’s five fifty eight fifty it’s about nine twenty nine thirty million a short billion just on those three tell the trades tell those who know is this the one that some causing people to scratch their heads those people who are still a great fan of terror and there’s other people who eally really are slightly suspicious of it as I said let’s just keep her eye on that so a Bitcoin trading volume low not a great deal there but you can see here  again the Korean one buyer average price 93 85 a lot higher than the 908 oh there 908 oh there 910 so Korean Won trade is still still paying a premium as you can see tether here’s traded 2.4 billion which is I think it’s total supply or near its total supply if Theory ‘im dollar buyers televise switches from Bitcoin we find another tether one here the one that actually sort of kind of stands out is ripple will talk about ripple a bit later on it still seems to be underperforming what you’re getting here is you’re still getting substantial Korean Won interest there there and maybe a little bit more down it’s not so much there but you know they’re trading the average price around 72 cents ripple at the moment is around 69 and a half cents so they’re still paying a sort of a healthy premium for Korean Won buyers of ripple it doesn’t seem to add a great deal to the price you know major talking points in the market Twitter other Twitter Twitter’s and tweets the stuff like that seem to run quiet that’s always the case when the market sort of in a bit more work on conciliatory matter fashion but the major one was like the g20 meeting in bonus areas and they’re basically they said that what they’d like or the finance ministers they’re saying that they would like some proposals regulation proposals by June this year so they want people to come up with their ideas for regulation for the cryptocurrencies in by June this year which again I think is it’s a good sign it’s good that they didn’t clamp down it’s good that they didn’t give any is far out any really negative negative commentary on them on the crypto market I think this is one of the reasons why it has traded a little bit higher g20 was the beginning of the week so I think this is one of the reasons that it has just edged edged higher from from the weekend sell-off one thing that they did say though I think this is for attacks tax and regulation reasons that they actually see crypto currencies as assets and not currencies so maybe you had to start calling them a crypto asset soon another sort of a good point is they don’t want a sort of stunt innovation you know they knowledge and technological improvement and innovation that you get basically blockchain and they say that they reckon that can still be used to improve the efficiency of the financial system and they want to sort of continue monitoring it so that’s a fairly a positive backdrop or it’s not a negative backdrop that’s the main thing I would imagine is they didn’t they didn’t say that you know they were going to clamp down on these and clamp down on them hard and Mark Carney the Bank of England’s governor you know he actually sort of came out and said I said that crypto characters do not pose risks to global financial stability at this time so again another sort of mildly positive view from a central banker which is all all quite good news the only other thing they still talk about the GOx administrators and still having a big chunk of Bitcoin that they need to that they will need to sell over the next few months it’s about I think it current prices anyone at 1.30 you 1.2 1.4 billions nominals worse I can’t see that moving the market too much to be honest with you if it’s if they sell it slowly and surely a little little chunks of Bitcoin coming into the market as I said today’s last 24 hours all Yuma’s six six and a half billion and that’s low so if you if you’re just generally leaking in 20 or 50 billions worth millions button that will have a Bitcoin two or three times a week you should be able to to find buyers for that with actually without sort of pushing the market against you right let’s have a look at some charts so let’s start with Bitcoin the old favourite as you can see a couple of things which are quite close clear from this is we’ve this downward trend from the December 17 high of 20,000 we had this downward trend this line here touch two or three times we broke out there we went back into but this is the candle that interest me we went back into but we actually closed back above we then went back into it but then there’s a positive candle next time around we’ve come back out and we’ve got these one two three four higher lows and we possibly make we got three higher highs we possibly make four higher highs as well so that’s a sort of short-term medium-term positive for Bitcoin we do we are approaching the bottom of this zone here which is made up from these lows here a high here just off there a couple of touches there so that’s approaching around the 9300 level we’re about two hundred and fifty odd dollars away from that at the moment interesting to see when we get if we get to this zone it’s looking possible at the moment what will happen if this zone all the way up to here around the nine eight nine nine if that is going to provide a reasonable barrier of resistance or not we just roll the chart out here we did bounce and we’re going through this fit boat didn’t really do a great deal to be honest with you and then you have this Fibonacci up here at Short well just over ten thousand nine hundred and seventy so really you’ve got a kind of wide range hood from 9050 here all the way up to ten nine on the upside they should you should find resistance levels kicking in all the way from really from around the 9300 to the ten thousand nine hundred it’s going to be quite congested trade be interesting to see if we do get there how we react to that area on the downside we’ve got that recent lower than seven thousand to fifty we then have your six thousand print there on February the 6th personally I think yeah I mean I’ve been talking to a couple of people recently who trade this companies their view it is that the market needs to go down just a touch more a little bit more of a sell-off before it you know starts going back up again but they also believe that volatility is has been taken out of market and you can see that here I would go on about it but these big candles here you know big big trading ranges big trading ranges if you’re a day try doing the right side of this as I said yeah yeah you’ll have a cracking day but if you look at here all these much smaller candles that was a sell-off coming into the weekend there and again these are just small candles on the way back up volatility being taken out of the market overall on Bitcoin slightly positive but really I’m not going to rush into it personally as I said that’s my view one thing I do want to just point out to you though it’s a big technical just going to use it on one of the IG try things here where is it let me just go to here Bitcoin this is a different chart here as you can see what I’ve done here is I’ve got the 50-day M&I; in the 200-day I mean I can just let me close this page and I say off quite a bearish sign is if the 50-day MNA the black line on this graph here goes through the 200-day moving average it’s nuts known as a death cross and it’s a very bearish signal and it basically means short term buys have given up and the trend is low and if you just look around here and this blue line here is coming from the is a downward trend it’s only got a couple of touches but we come and if you just look into here we got the 200-day MA actually I will just put this back on okay so we go to this candle here and you got the 200-day M&A; at 9:43 5 you got the sorry 50-day a 9th or 3/5 200 ma at 9 1 6 5 now if the black line goes through the red line and closes under there for a couple of day or 24 hours or 40 I asked and I could turn the market negative so you do have this little cluster coming up just around here and it also coincides with this downward trend line which comes in around just around there around the 9400 so do beware if you can set that up on your charts 50-day 200-day M&I; if the 50 goes below the 200 just be wary we are going into on here stochastic saying we’re going in this slightly overbought territory there enough right let’s have a look at the next one where should we go from here let’s have a look at rip this is the old favorite this low here at 58 on the 6th of February Don the 6th of em this year didn’t hold we touched to 52 cents I think it was about 52 cents on this candle here then we bounced back but if you look at the trade in ripple I mean trading ranges are really quite a whore and I do still think that this barrier here which starts around the 85 scientists zone of resistance 85 cents backed up by this 86 cent Fibonacci retracement still holds I think we’re gonna take a quite a lot for ripple to to bounce back above there I see the market continuing a sideways pattern on Ripple of course unless this there’s some massive news one way or the other but from a chart point of view it’s I think you may even get a range around the 54 to 122 it’s quite a wide range but I think this zone here this yellow zone should still be respected so ripple um pretty pretty neutral and I can’t see any reason to buy it or to sell it we do have a small downtrend that may extend a bit further and it may you know may retry this 58 and then this 52 but then therefore the problem being is you got this quite a big gap all the way down to 20 cents on the style of when that massive rally and started the end of last year so ripple neutral mm slightly negative bias but again I’m personally and these are my views I wouldn’t really be getting in there one way or the other it’s um I think we there’s other other coins to look at if you wanted a trade and as I said I think this one is just at the moment in a bit of a sideways consolidation pattern let’s move on to etherium as I keep telling you I must pay for this system right now we dropped down here on the theorem down a full 57 over the weekend or 450 okay so we took out this 524 level with reasonable ease okay it was a spite we have rehab ground back above it and we still there we are still very much under this long term this medium term sorry downtrend channel there is scope even to go back up to this you know 717 720 level and still be effectively in a bear market what actually happen with ripple I don’t know a lot of or most of these ICS are based on the in theory IMPLAN and so what actually happens is when all these ICS come out and there’s about five billion plus of them last year you’d use your fiat currency to buy ether unless you unless you had an ether already and then you’d exchange your ether for these new IC o—- so what actually happened is a lot of these are IC o—- companies will long of ether as they started to give you their coins against it I’m not sure the lock-up here is because I’ve read the white papers all these companies and there are hundreds and hundreds of them but it seems likely and I’ll just put that in seems likely that a lot of the etherium sellers were perhaps the people who held them the IC o—- companies who held them and that would explain this quite sharp price drop from you know this level 850 down to 450 an iron having in that’s a fifth of March to the 18th of March and they’re having in two weeks I’m not sure that ico selling or if this is theorem ether selling from the out from these various ICS or ICO platforms is continuing but what it has done is it has really sort of left aetherium in a fairly negative place as I said this downtrend is still being respected it’s not the best of downtrend it knows might it only really touches three times it could perhaps pull it in closer to take into there so it touches four times but even then you know that would then where would that that would leave about 700 today’s pricing as the as if it’s kind of downtrend resistance just below as I said so I think the theorem I think is still weak ish it the way it just spiked there through this support there that I’ve already had been talking about slightly worrying okay we have gone back above it but there may be a retest there so again neutral maybe slightly bearish on the theorem but as I said I think this wooden one is going to be a slow you know slowly up and down but with the trend overall at the moment looking slightly negative so as I said I think we’re going to kind of respect this if we don’t obviously if we do an ice-breaking close above this line that may be coming in a few days time then we could you know we could push ahead but as I said at the moment negative slightly negative neutral to negative and last but not least let’s have a look at litecoin yeah this is an interesting one we had a retrace of this move here see this candle here this big spike candle here this is I think when it’s on don’t talk about the light pay and the light Powell systems are going to come into and then obviously the light pay debit card has been put on ice for the time being so basically what you saw is he saw a complete retest and tonight all the way back this is again this Lowe’s at the weekend we’ve moved slightly how we have just nudged above this short-term downtrend started on 20th of Feb and where we are at the moment what 173 with it just on this Fibonacci retracement just there so I think with this one what we need to do is really need to see how it’s going to react we have this confluence here of the downtrend and a fibonacci retracement I I said I would this one I’ll stay away from the foot and ferb a few days anyhow oh I’d a maybe you know a couple of closes above both this short-term downtrend and the fib L at 173 may see you push back to these sort of candles around here which would you know gives you a twenty dollar upside but let’s just see how this one plays out it’s quite an important level that we’re trading at currently and as I said just below it here is about 166 it’s just downtrend so just be slightly wary there so overall I think the charts are neutral as I said ripple doesn’t seem to be going anywhere it can be careful if we do get this 50-day 200 a.m. and a crossover which would spark a lot of interest from technical analysts say they love a death cross on the other way right out on the other way it’s called a golden cross if the 50 goes up through the 200-day it’s cerium litecoin you know we have these trends let’s just see if we’re going to break out of these trends and make a decent break of them not just a one-day I you know if we can get two or three days here above this for though you know we could we could push ahead by another you know 10% but again candles small candles small candles small candles small candles it’s basically saying that traders are weary at the moment there’s nobody plowing in or shorting them heavily one way or the other so as I said just be slightly wary but not as negative as last week but I’m not certainly not positive over all right I think that just about does it actually do the same again next week obviously the same time same place yeah so maybe what we’ll do next week it’s I was thinking maybe we will try and talk maybe get some more interaction with you or not you know I want to find out you know more from you if you’re a day trader how you how you feel if you’re a buy-and-hold if you like switching Kryptos against each other so maybe next week I’ll try I get a bit more of an interactive go and aren’t some more questions and instead of me just just doing the charts but as I said not as negative as last week neutral maybe maybe small bullish but let’s not get carried away with ourselves right okay then I’m going to wish you a good week if you trade other financial markets obviously got the FOMC coming up this after early evening actually early evening FOMC the early evening so be wary of that until then thanks for joining me yes I’m time next week then okay then Cheers you

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Cryptocurrency Look Ahead – Prices, Charts and Analysis

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